DELTA (DEveloping Long Term Adaptation) Tools for the Mekong Delta
Donor / Partner: World Bank | Duration: 2014-2015 | Location: Mekong Delta – Vietnam
About: The Mekong Basin with its complex monsoon climate is highly exposed to climate change. Average annual temperatures are expected to increase by 3-5°C by mid-century with average wet season precipitation increasing by 3-14% (USAID, 2013). For the floodplain areas of Cambodia and Viet Nam, increases in wet precipitation will be coupled with increased peak daily precipitation events and drier dry seasons, compounding water availability issues by making wet seasons wetter and dry seasons drier (USAID, 2013).
The extent to which these basin-wide changes impact the delta system remains a function of the cumulative effect of each of these parameters and their complex interactions. This means Delta planners and decisions makers need to continue making important strategic decisions on the future direction and nature of development in the delta amidst an uncertain future which largely lies outside their control. At present no tools or frameworks exist which allow delta planners to systematically assess the resilience of their investment decisions against the breadth of potential change.
The project, also known as DELTA (DEveloping Long Term Adaptation) Tools for the Mekong Delta involves the development of a Decision Support Framework (DSF) which provides an evidence-based process for integrated regional investment decisions in agriculture, water resource and transport development in the Mekong Delta.
DELTA Tools combine Mekong Basin future simulations of hydrological regimes for the Mekong Delta based on four key drivers of change; climate, hydropower development, land use change and sea level rise to determine the threats to the delta from key issues such as flood depth, extent and duration, saline intrusion and erosion. These geophysical changes are then overlaid onto the socio-economic projections for the delta to determine delta metrics; risks to rice production, agriculture and aquaculture as well as impacts on infrastructure and natural systems. These metrics provide the basis in which proposed investment decisions and scenarios from the Mekong Delta Plan can be assessed for their adaptability and resilience to future climate projections.
ICEM provides the key technical inputs at all stages of DELTA Tools development combining their high level GIS and spatial expertise as well as cutting-edge tools development with their extensive experience working in the Mekong Delta region.
In addition, the project will provide an opportunity for government stakeholders at national and provincial levels to test the principles of the newly drafted Mekong Delta Plan (MDP) and start to shape these principles into a shared guiding vision for Delta development.
Climate Change Baseline