About: Myanmar is affected by a wide range of high-impact hydro-meteorological and climatological hazards and is one of the most at-risk countries in terms of damage and loss from weather-related hazards and climate change. The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) currently provides multiple hydrological forecasts including long-range and monsoon season flood forecasts, minimum alert and significant water level bulletins, flood warning bulletins, monthly forecast, and daily water-level forecast. However, significant opportunities remain for enhancement of flood forecast resolution, warning and flood hazard mapping to strengthen the quality and communication of hydrological information in Myanmar and support local flood mitigation and response.

The project Impact Based Forecasting Pilots and Flood Hazard Mapping in the Chindwin and Central Ayeyarwady Basin, Myanmar will build on DMH’s existing production of national flood forecasts with the piloting of impact-based forecasting (IBF) to strengthen flood warnings for the local level. This project will be conducted within Component 2 of the 5-year Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management (AIRBM) Project investment. Key features of ICEM’s close coordination with DMH for this project include enhancing the resolution of flood forecasts, enabling the development of local flood hazard maps and vulnerability assessments, conducting training in impact-based flood forecasting tools and components, and improving hydrological and 1D-2D hydraulic flood models. Pilot implementation of the enhanced flood forecasting system will be conducted across six towns along the Chindwin and Ayeyarwady Rivers.

The project will:

• Develop flood hazard and vulnerability maps and flood impact assessment for six towns within two pilot areas

• Develop tools for collating and assimilating real-time hydro-meteorological data, data analysis and data reporting

• Review and improve existing modelling systems, with a focus on the performance in the Chindwin and Central Ayeyarwady Basin

• Develop capacity of DMH hydrologists and GIS staff in hydrological and hydraulic modelling, flood risk and vulnerability assessment, and managing flood forecasting systems

ICEM is also supporting Component I of the AIRBM project: Development of the Ayeyarwady Decision Support System and Basin Master Plan

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