Project Description

Client: &Green/ Sail Ventures  |   Duration:  December 2023 – June 2024 |   Location: Vietnam

The Central Highlands accounts for 91.2% of growing area and 93.2% of production of coffee in Viet Nam. Lam Dong is one of two provinces with the largest coffee growing area and the highest production, and had the highest yield of 3.31 tons per ha, which was 17.1% higher than the average yield of the five provinces.

Coffee production in the Central Highlands faces several challenges, such as excessive use of inorganic fertilizers, improper irrigation practices, and soil degradation. In the past 10 years, natural hazards, including drought, flood, frost and soil erosion, and climate change had a negative impact on coffee production. The projected increase in dry season rainfall is likely to affect flowering patterns, possibly affecting pollination success. With rising temperatures (especially during the dry season), coffee lands that were optimal for production 20 years ago may now become less suitable. Higher temperatures put stress on the plant, reduce photosynthesis and yield, and increase the susceptibility to pests and diseases.

In addition, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) enacted by the European Union (EU) came into force on 29 June 2023. It prohibits the import of seven commodities (and some of their derivatives), including coffee, if the production of these commodities is linked to deforestation. Meeting EUDR requirements is high on the agenda of the Government of Viet Nam. Shortly after the EUDR came into force, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) enacted the Action Plan Framework for EUDR Compliance.

Within this context, the objectives of this study – Physical Climate Risk Assessment and Improved Climate Resilience of Coffee Production Supply Chains in the Central Highlands of Vietnam – are to:

• Identify the current and future climate hazards relevant to the current and potential coffee production areas in the Central Highlands in Vietnam;
• Undertake vulnerability assessment of coffee production and identification of material climate risks, i.e. the potential for adverse consequences of climate-related hazards on coffee production;
• Identify possible adaptation actions for enhancing climate resilience of coffee production and
• Identify forest areas that are at risk of deforestation for coffee plantations.

ICEM will implement the study through three phases: 1 – Baseline Assessment, 2 – Vulnerability Assessment, and 3 – Adaptation and Resilience Enhancement, including the following key activities:

• Conduct a baseline assessment of status and trends in natural resources, hazards and climate, coffee production, and relevant socio-economic conditions
• Map hazards relevant to coffee production, document past impacts of hazards on coffee production, and perform hotspot screening analysis;
• Identify and analyse past trends in forest loss and linkages to coffee expansion;
• Conduct a vulnerability assessment of coffee production against climate-related hazards;
• Assess the consequences of current and future climate-related hazards, including related financial risks;
• Delineate forest areas that are at risk of being converted to coffee plantations in light of future climate changes and projected hazard impacts;
• Identify possible adaptation options to improve the climate resilience of coffee production and
• Evaluate the feasibility and viability of potential adaptation options, including landscape- and farm-level economic analysis.

Photo credits: Coffee field in the Central Highland, Vietnam. ICEM