Project Description

Assessment of green, gray and hybrid solutions for mudflow risk mitigation in the Kara Darya River Basin, the Kyrgyz Republic

Client: The World Bank (WB) |   Duration:  June 2023 – March 2024 |   Location: Kyrgyz Republic |   Partners: HYDROC, CAIAG

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of Central Asia’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-exacerbated hazards such as landslides, flash floods, and mudflows are common, and contributing to significant levels of disaster risk. In Southern regions such as Osh and Jalal Abad oblasts, mudflow is one of the significant hazards that causes considerable damage to the community and livelihood along many rivers including the Kugart and Kara Ungur, tributaries of the Kara Darya River. The Kyrgyz Republic Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES) identified mudflow mitigation in the South as one of top priorities.

The MoES is working with the World Bank (WB) in preparation of the Kyrgyz Resilient Landscape Restoration Project (Kyrgyz Resiland) to increase landscape restoration and sustainable landscape management and implement climate-resilient solutions to reduce the impact of mudflows to the communities and livelihoods. MoES proposes several gray interventions along the Kugart River and other tributaries in Kara Darya River, mainly refurbishing and constructing embankments to protect the most vulnerable communities and agricultural land, and riprap to protect riverbanks.

The World Bank has appointed the Joint Venture ICEM/CAIAG/ HYDROC to deliver the Technical Assistance (TA) Assessment of Green, Gray, and Hybrid Solutions for Mudflow Risk Mitigation in the Kara Darya River Basin, the Kyrgyz Republic to support the design and implementation of the Kyrgyz Resiland project. The main objectives of the TA are to better understand the risks of mudflow events and to assess, identify and evaluate a combination of green and gray solutions to protect the livelihoods of the community in the longer term while maximizing other co-benefits.

ICEM provides the following services:

    • Task 1: Assessment of mudflow causes, risks and impacts:

    • Collect data and review existing and proposed measures by the MoES;
    • Conduct hydrological and hydraulic modelling to assess mudflow and flooding hazards in Kara Darya river basin and three target catchments;
    • Conduct a detailed mudflow and flooding vulnerability and risks analysis, including a physical asset survey;
    • Determine impacts (both direct and indirect) to communities, infrastructure (especially transboundary road links, canals) and key sectors (agriculture, irrigation).

    • Task 2: Assessment, identification, and design of green and gray risk reduction measures

    • Identify a long list of potential mudflow mitigation measures in the upstream (i.e., areas contributing to sediment loss such as degraded land, mountain slopes, channels subject to erosion), midstream, and downstream (i.e., areas impacted by mudflows such as channels subject to flooding or mud deposition) with an emphasis on NBS but also integrate hybrid and gray solutions in the target catchments;
    • Assess the potential interventions against pre-defined criteria to arrive at a shortlist of measures;
    • Conduct a consultation workshop to facilitate and discuss the shortlisting of green and gray integrated solutions.

    • Task 3: Development of investment scenarios and plan optimization

    • Conduct cost-benefit analysis of different scenarios: “baseline” – do nothing, gray only, and hybrid (green and gray) to evaluate quantitatively the various impacts of both, already planned interventions and new measures;
    • Perform a multi-criteria analysis to propose an optimal combination of solutions.

    • Development of a Decision Support Tool (DST) to support climate-resilient agriculture and NbSA

    • Develop the DST as an input to enable and support ecosystem-based land use and agricultural sector decision-making and planning (link to Work Package II planning activities) in each region
    • Develop an open-access web-based content management system consisting of the DST and knowledge base linked to functionalities of the DST to support informed decision making

    • Task 4: Final recommendations and dissemination of results

    • Prepare a summary booklet for policy makers to communicate the technical outputs to senior management in MoES and to disseminate the study results to a wider audience for better sustainability and uptake;
    • Develop a PowerPoint presentation to present key messages and results in a visually attractive manner;
    • Hand over data to the World Bank.

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    Photo credits: Ala archa By Garth Willis, Commons Wikimedia